Since the US dollar is the centerpiece of the market, it is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes. In the "Majors", this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/JPY 123.50 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 123.50 Japanese yen.
When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened. If the USD/JPY quote listed above were to increase to 124.01, that would mean that the dollar is stronger because it will now buy more yen than before.
Some exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as GBP/USD 1.4366, which means that one British pound equals 1.4366 U.S. dollars. In these three currency pairs, where the U.S. dollar is not the base rate, a rising quote means a weakening dollar, as it now takes more U.S. dollars to equal one pound, euro or Australian dollar.
So if a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening. Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same. For example, a quote of EUR/JPY 127.95 signifies that one Euro is equal to 127.95 Japanese yen.Chuck Cox is a Technical Writer and Industrial Scientist by professional with a background in statistics. He has used mathematical and statistical methods to invest and trade in the stock, futures, and options markets. Chuck has owned various businesses and presently operates several websites. To investigate a new business idea, visit his website, http://www.earncashathometoday.com/trading-FOREX.htm
Sabtu, 05 Januari 2008
Forex Trading Systems: Mechanical Vs. Discretionary Systems
There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.
We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.
Mechanical systems
Advantages This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently. It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn't. Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.
Disadvantages Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data. The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same. A system that worked successfully the past year doesn't necessary mean it will work this year.
Discretionary systems
Advantages Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions. Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.
Disadvantages They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made. It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.
Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won't play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.
If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.
On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.
Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.
I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.
Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:
1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.
2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It's not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.
4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader and founder of http://www.straightforex.com a high quality Forex training company.
We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.
Mechanical systems
Advantages This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently. It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn't. Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.
Disadvantages Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data. The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same. A system that worked successfully the past year doesn't necessary mean it will work this year.
Discretionary systems
Advantages Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions. Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.
Disadvantages They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made. It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.
Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won't play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.
If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.
On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.
Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.
I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.
Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:
1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.
2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It's not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.
4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader and founder of http://www.straightforex.com a high quality Forex training company.
What are Your Options Regarding Forex Options Brokers?
Forex option brokers can generally be divided into two separate categories: forex brokers who offer online forex option trading platforms and forex brokers who only broker forex option trading via telephone trades placed through a dealing/brokerage desk. A few forex option brokers offer both online forex option trading as well a dealing/brokerage desk for investors who prefer to place orders through a live forex option broker.
The trading account minimums required by different forex option brokers vary from a few thousand dollars to over fifty thousand dollars. Also, forex option brokers may require investors to trade forex options contracts having minimum notional values (contract sizes) up to $500,000. Last, but not least, certain types of forex option contracts can be entered into and exited at any time while other types of forex option contracts lock you in until expiration or settlement. Depending on the type of forex option contract you enter into, you might get stuck the wrong way with an option contract that you can not trade out of. Before trading, investors should inquire with their forex option brokers about initial trading account minimums, required contract size minimums and contract liquidity.
There are a number of different forex option trading products offered to investors by forex option brokers. We believe it is extremely important for investors to understand the distinctly different risk characteristics of each of the forex option trading products mentioned below that are offered by firms that broker forex options.
Plain Vanilla Forex Options Broker - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or forex put option contract.
There are only a few forex option broker/dealers who offer plain vanilla forex options online with real-time streaming quotes 24 hours a day. Most forex option brokers and banks only broker forex options via telephone. Vanilla forex options for major currencies have good liquidity and you can easily enter the market long or short, or exit the market any time day or night.
Vanilla forex option contracts can be used in combination with each other and/or with spot forex contracts to form a basic strategy such as writing a covered call, or much more complex forex trading strategies such as butterflies, strangles, ratio spreads, synthetics, etc. Also, plain vanilla options are often the basis of forex option trading strategies known as exotic options.
Exotic Forex Options Broker - First, it is important to note that there a couple of different forex definitions for "exotic" and we don't want anyone getting confused. The first definition of a forex "exotic" refers to any individual currency that is less broadly traded than the major currencies. The second forex definition for "exotic" is the one we refer to on this website - a forex option contract (trading strategy) that is a derivative of a standard vanilla forex option contract.
To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific's investor's needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.
Exotic forex options are generally traded by commercial and institutional investors rather than retail forex traders, so we won't spend too much time covering exotic forex options brokers. Examples of exotic forex options would include Asian options (average price options or "APO's"), barrier options (payout depends on whether or not the underlying reaches a certain price level or not), baskets (payout depends on more than one currency or a "basket" of currencies), binary options (the payout is cash-or-nothing if underlying does not reach strike price), lookback options (payout is based on maximum or minimum price reached during life of the contract), compound options (options on options with multiple strikes and exercise dates), spread options, chooser options, packages and so on. Exotic options can be tailored to a specific trader's needs, therefore, exotic options contract types change and evolve over time to suit those ever-changing needs.
Since exotic forex options contracts are usually specifically tailored to an individual investor, most of the exotic options business in transacted over the telephone through forex option brokers. There are, however, a handful of forex option brokers who offer "if touched" forex options or "single payment" forex options contracts online whereby an investor can specify an amount he or she is willing to risk in exchange for a specified payout amount if the underlying price reaches a certain strike price (price level). These transactions offered by legitimate online forex brokers can be considered a type of "exotic" option. However, we have noticed that the premiums charged for these types of contracts can be higher than plain vanilla option contracts with similar strike prices and you can not sell out of the option position once you have purchased this type of option - you can only attempt to offset the position with a separate risk management strategy. As a trade-off for getting to choose the dollar amount you want to risk and the payout you wish to receive, you pay a premium and sacrifice liquidity. We would encourage investors to compare premiums before investing in these kinds of options and also make sure the brokerage firm is reputable.
Again, it is fairly easy and liquid to enter into an exotic forex option contract but it is important to note that depending on the type of exotic option contract, there may be little to no liquidity at all if you wanted to exit the position.
Firms Offering Forex Option "Betting" - A number of new firms have popped up over the last year offering forex "betting." Though some may be legitimate, a number of these firms are either off-shore entities or located in some other remote location. We generally do not consider these to be forex brokerage firms. Many do not appear to be regulated by any government agency and we strongly suggest investors perform due diligence before investing with any forex betting firms. Invest at your own risk with these firms.John Nobile - Senior Account ExecutiveCFOS/FX - Online Forex Spot and Options Brokerage
The trading account minimums required by different forex option brokers vary from a few thousand dollars to over fifty thousand dollars. Also, forex option brokers may require investors to trade forex options contracts having minimum notional values (contract sizes) up to $500,000. Last, but not least, certain types of forex option contracts can be entered into and exited at any time while other types of forex option contracts lock you in until expiration or settlement. Depending on the type of forex option contract you enter into, you might get stuck the wrong way with an option contract that you can not trade out of. Before trading, investors should inquire with their forex option brokers about initial trading account minimums, required contract size minimums and contract liquidity.
There are a number of different forex option trading products offered to investors by forex option brokers. We believe it is extremely important for investors to understand the distinctly different risk characteristics of each of the forex option trading products mentioned below that are offered by firms that broker forex options.
Plain Vanilla Forex Options Broker - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or forex put option contract.
There are only a few forex option broker/dealers who offer plain vanilla forex options online with real-time streaming quotes 24 hours a day. Most forex option brokers and banks only broker forex options via telephone. Vanilla forex options for major currencies have good liquidity and you can easily enter the market long or short, or exit the market any time day or night.
Vanilla forex option contracts can be used in combination with each other and/or with spot forex contracts to form a basic strategy such as writing a covered call, or much more complex forex trading strategies such as butterflies, strangles, ratio spreads, synthetics, etc. Also, plain vanilla options are often the basis of forex option trading strategies known as exotic options.
Exotic Forex Options Broker - First, it is important to note that there a couple of different forex definitions for "exotic" and we don't want anyone getting confused. The first definition of a forex "exotic" refers to any individual currency that is less broadly traded than the major currencies. The second forex definition for "exotic" is the one we refer to on this website - a forex option contract (trading strategy) that is a derivative of a standard vanilla forex option contract.
To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific's investor's needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.
Exotic forex options are generally traded by commercial and institutional investors rather than retail forex traders, so we won't spend too much time covering exotic forex options brokers. Examples of exotic forex options would include Asian options (average price options or "APO's"), barrier options (payout depends on whether or not the underlying reaches a certain price level or not), baskets (payout depends on more than one currency or a "basket" of currencies), binary options (the payout is cash-or-nothing if underlying does not reach strike price), lookback options (payout is based on maximum or minimum price reached during life of the contract), compound options (options on options with multiple strikes and exercise dates), spread options, chooser options, packages and so on. Exotic options can be tailored to a specific trader's needs, therefore, exotic options contract types change and evolve over time to suit those ever-changing needs.
Since exotic forex options contracts are usually specifically tailored to an individual investor, most of the exotic options business in transacted over the telephone through forex option brokers. There are, however, a handful of forex option brokers who offer "if touched" forex options or "single payment" forex options contracts online whereby an investor can specify an amount he or she is willing to risk in exchange for a specified payout amount if the underlying price reaches a certain strike price (price level). These transactions offered by legitimate online forex brokers can be considered a type of "exotic" option. However, we have noticed that the premiums charged for these types of contracts can be higher than plain vanilla option contracts with similar strike prices and you can not sell out of the option position once you have purchased this type of option - you can only attempt to offset the position with a separate risk management strategy. As a trade-off for getting to choose the dollar amount you want to risk and the payout you wish to receive, you pay a premium and sacrifice liquidity. We would encourage investors to compare premiums before investing in these kinds of options and also make sure the brokerage firm is reputable.
Again, it is fairly easy and liquid to enter into an exotic forex option contract but it is important to note that depending on the type of exotic option contract, there may be little to no liquidity at all if you wanted to exit the position.
Firms Offering Forex Option "Betting" - A number of new firms have popped up over the last year offering forex "betting." Though some may be legitimate, a number of these firms are either off-shore entities or located in some other remote location. We generally do not consider these to be forex brokerage firms. Many do not appear to be regulated by any government agency and we strongly suggest investors perform due diligence before investing with any forex betting firms. Invest at your own risk with these firms.John Nobile - Senior Account ExecutiveCFOS/FX - Online Forex Spot and Options Brokerage
Forex Trading Can Be Like Day-trading
Forex trading, or foreign currency trading, has become a bit of a craze of late, especially since it is something available to anyone who owns a computer. And anyone who is willing to put in some training time can profit from forex trading.
The forex market finds traders from all around the globe monitoring currency fluctuations, not unlike the way a day trader may monitor a stock's fluctuation on the Dow Jones.
In forex trading, a trader will pair two types of currency, for example the U.S. dollar and the British pound. As it requires more of one currency to purchase another, that currency loses value. Not unlike, stock trading, forex traders try to accumulate currency when it weakens in hopes of selling it when it goes up in value. Forex trading is not unlike the buy low, sell high approach found in stock trading.
The way a trader on the forex market exchange goes about acquiring currency is by giving a bid/ask quote, saying he is willing to buy, for example 1.6 marks per dollar and sell them at 1.625 per dollar. One must be a market trader to have access to this process. So most people who are forex trading on line buy the currency through a bank, where they'll pay a commission, then have to figure the commission paid to the bank into the calculation of their spread, or profit margin, when they sell it.
Forex trading is not an easy path to riches. And some people have lost considerable money in miscalculating the market. With its increased popularity, on some days the forex market exchange can see more than one trillion dollars exchanged. Packages for teaching a new forex trader how to invest in the market can range in price.Fco Segurata is an specialist in forex trading. He helped many entrepreneurs to get more for their money.
Get more updated daily articles about Forex in his Forex site.
The forex market finds traders from all around the globe monitoring currency fluctuations, not unlike the way a day trader may monitor a stock's fluctuation on the Dow Jones.
In forex trading, a trader will pair two types of currency, for example the U.S. dollar and the British pound. As it requires more of one currency to purchase another, that currency loses value. Not unlike, stock trading, forex traders try to accumulate currency when it weakens in hopes of selling it when it goes up in value. Forex trading is not unlike the buy low, sell high approach found in stock trading.
The way a trader on the forex market exchange goes about acquiring currency is by giving a bid/ask quote, saying he is willing to buy, for example 1.6 marks per dollar and sell them at 1.625 per dollar. One must be a market trader to have access to this process. So most people who are forex trading on line buy the currency through a bank, where they'll pay a commission, then have to figure the commission paid to the bank into the calculation of their spread, or profit margin, when they sell it.
Forex trading is not an easy path to riches. And some people have lost considerable money in miscalculating the market. With its increased popularity, on some days the forex market exchange can see more than one trillion dollars exchanged. Packages for teaching a new forex trader how to invest in the market can range in price.Fco Segurata is an specialist in forex trading. He helped many entrepreneurs to get more for their money.
Get more updated daily articles about Forex in his Forex site.
Forex Trading: Making Money With Money
Forex trading is one of the growing markets for making money in today's world economy. If you are part of the forex trading game, you need well thought out and planned strategies. You also need up to the minute information and reliable data to help you along the way. With this said, in order to be successful at forex, you'll want to invest in high quality products to help you analyze, watch and track the forex market. No little project at all. The good news to you is that there are options out there to help you do just that.
First of all, realize that forex trading is an excellent market to trade in. It has the ability to make you money without a whole lot of investing. And, you can trade with whatever you have, not necessarily millions of dollars. To get into the forex market, it makes sense to pay attention to the numbers for some time. Then, you'll have a good feel for it long before your dollars are involved.
But, once you do get in, you'll need up to the minute information. Consider the purchase of and use of valuable forex trading software programs. These programs can help you to track what is happening and in some, it will help you to better analyze the information as well. Of course, this in turn will help you to make the right decisions about your investments.
While market trading is always risky, many find that forex trading, when done right, is one of the most profitable without much start up investment opportunities out there. With the ability that you have to monitor and respond virtually instantly to the world's market in forex, you are better able to make the right decisions which will then lead to those gains you are seeking.for more information please see http://www.forex-trading-help.co.uk
First of all, realize that forex trading is an excellent market to trade in. It has the ability to make you money without a whole lot of investing. And, you can trade with whatever you have, not necessarily millions of dollars. To get into the forex market, it makes sense to pay attention to the numbers for some time. Then, you'll have a good feel for it long before your dollars are involved.
But, once you do get in, you'll need up to the minute information. Consider the purchase of and use of valuable forex trading software programs. These programs can help you to track what is happening and in some, it will help you to better analyze the information as well. Of course, this in turn will help you to make the right decisions about your investments.
While market trading is always risky, many find that forex trading, when done right, is one of the most profitable without much start up investment opportunities out there. With the ability that you have to monitor and respond virtually instantly to the world's market in forex, you are better able to make the right decisions which will then lead to those gains you are seeking.for more information please see http://www.forex-trading-help.co.uk
5 Questions You Need To Have Answered Before You Back-Test Your Forex System
As 90-95% of new forex traders lose money within the first 3-6 months this article helps to guide new forex traders by asking 5 questions that the forex trader needs to know prior to back-testing their forex system.
Let us jump right in...
1. What data type are you using (or going to use)?
I know this sounds strange, especially if you have experience from another market such as stocks as their generally is only one type of data source available. However, in the forex market you can have up to 4 different data types: bid, ask, mid and indicative. Each have their own little nuances.
If you would like to know more about the data types then visit the article written about the perils of indicative prices. As this will save me from having to repeat the information again and boring those who've already read it.
So, if you know you have indicative prices then you know you're in for some good results! However, if you have any of the other three you need to be careful on how stop and limit orders are placed.
As an example: If we had bid price history and we were looking to place a buy entry stop at 0830 EST according to the day's high, then we know that the bid price will not accurately reflect what the actual price of our order should be. You would have noticed that if you placed a buy entry stop at the exact same price as that of the day's high you would have entered prematurely - you would have entered 4 or 5 pips before the high or the low of the day was touched (the exact same amount as the spread your broker offers!).
This leads me into the next most important question...
2. What spread is your broker offering on the currencies you are bask-testing?
You need to know this as this can help you set your slippage settings on each currency.
As our example in question 1 pointed out. We found that our buy at the day's high method did not exactly work because we bought at the BID PRICE high, not the ASK PRICE high - the price that we need when we place our order TO BUY.
Therefore, we enter in a slippage setting representing the spread that would be exhibited by this trade on this currency.
But knowing at what price to buy is only half the problem... how do we know what quantity to buy?
3. What margin does your broker offer?
If we know at what price to buy our currency at we need to inform our broker on what quantity to buy to fulfill the order. We only know what quantity to buy by the margin that the brokerage firm offers.
Most brokerage firms offer 100:1 leverage, however, some firms offer mini accounts with 200:1 leverage, others only 50:1 leverage.
Find out the margin required.
4. What restrictions does your broker impose?
Now, I don't just mean margin and spread restrictions as I have mentioned above. These are important in their own right, what you need to find out are the details.
This is probably the most important question of all as the fine line between success and failure can be found in the details. Now you can have this questioned by one of two ways: 1. You can find out through experience (generally the most expensive way unless done through the demo account!); or 2. You ask your broker (the cheapest and best way).
Why is this so important? I hear you ask. Well let's say you have a system that trades any gaps that might form on Sunday at 1700 EST, but your broker does not open until 1730 EST. You either need to factor this restriction in to your system, or move onto another system completely. Or, you may have a system that has 10 pip stops, but you find out that your broker will only let you place 15 pip stops from your initial entry price. Once again you will need to change your system to see whether it still performs well, or throw out your system (or change your broker)!
In fact one of the most devastating restrictions imposed by FXCM is that they do not accept stop entry orders if price never happens to trade at your entry stop price! FXCM will honor and "take the loss" of your OPEN stop positions, but if the liquidity is not there and price has shot straight through your stop price then you will miss out. This can have disastrous effects on your system results as you are left wondering on trades where you made good returns - "Would FXCM have got me in?". You may want to read of some of the quirks I use when placing entry stop orders on FXCM that could be of huge benefit to you to help you possibly get around this problem.
The restrictions by your broker are only half your systems' success, you also need to find out about another more important restriction... yourself. This leads me to the final point...
5. What restrictions do you have?
This is a vitally important question. Most people test their systems and fall in love with the results but find when they trade their system they have lost their account and that most of the best signals occurred while they were sound asleep!
As the forex market is a 24 hour market, you need to put into place restrictions in your system that will be realisticly conducted by you during the course of a normal trading day. There is no use operating a trailing stop method that changes your stop points during times when you are asleep and cannot possibly do so.
I hope this article has made you aware of some of the important things that need to be known prior to testing your system.Article written by Ryan Sheehy from Currency Secrets.com. Where you will find reviews on forex data vendors, signal providers, brokers, and popular forex resources, along with more quality articles... all for f*ree!
Let us jump right in...
1. What data type are you using (or going to use)?
I know this sounds strange, especially if you have experience from another market such as stocks as their generally is only one type of data source available. However, in the forex market you can have up to 4 different data types: bid, ask, mid and indicative. Each have their own little nuances.
If you would like to know more about the data types then visit the article written about the perils of indicative prices. As this will save me from having to repeat the information again and boring those who've already read it.
So, if you know you have indicative prices then you know you're in for some good results! However, if you have any of the other three you need to be careful on how stop and limit orders are placed.
As an example: If we had bid price history and we were looking to place a buy entry stop at 0830 EST according to the day's high, then we know that the bid price will not accurately reflect what the actual price of our order should be. You would have noticed that if you placed a buy entry stop at the exact same price as that of the day's high you would have entered prematurely - you would have entered 4 or 5 pips before the high or the low of the day was touched (the exact same amount as the spread your broker offers!).
This leads me into the next most important question...
2. What spread is your broker offering on the currencies you are bask-testing?
You need to know this as this can help you set your slippage settings on each currency.
As our example in question 1 pointed out. We found that our buy at the day's high method did not exactly work because we bought at the BID PRICE high, not the ASK PRICE high - the price that we need when we place our order TO BUY.
Therefore, we enter in a slippage setting representing the spread that would be exhibited by this trade on this currency.
But knowing at what price to buy is only half the problem... how do we know what quantity to buy?
3. What margin does your broker offer?
If we know at what price to buy our currency at we need to inform our broker on what quantity to buy to fulfill the order. We only know what quantity to buy by the margin that the brokerage firm offers.
Most brokerage firms offer 100:1 leverage, however, some firms offer mini accounts with 200:1 leverage, others only 50:1 leverage.
Find out the margin required.
4. What restrictions does your broker impose?
Now, I don't just mean margin and spread restrictions as I have mentioned above. These are important in their own right, what you need to find out are the details.
This is probably the most important question of all as the fine line between success and failure can be found in the details. Now you can have this questioned by one of two ways: 1. You can find out through experience (generally the most expensive way unless done through the demo account!); or 2. You ask your broker (the cheapest and best way).
Why is this so important? I hear you ask. Well let's say you have a system that trades any gaps that might form on Sunday at 1700 EST, but your broker does not open until 1730 EST. You either need to factor this restriction in to your system, or move onto another system completely. Or, you may have a system that has 10 pip stops, but you find out that your broker will only let you place 15 pip stops from your initial entry price. Once again you will need to change your system to see whether it still performs well, or throw out your system (or change your broker)!
In fact one of the most devastating restrictions imposed by FXCM is that they do not accept stop entry orders if price never happens to trade at your entry stop price! FXCM will honor and "take the loss" of your OPEN stop positions, but if the liquidity is not there and price has shot straight through your stop price then you will miss out. This can have disastrous effects on your system results as you are left wondering on trades where you made good returns - "Would FXCM have got me in?". You may want to read of some of the quirks I use when placing entry stop orders on FXCM that could be of huge benefit to you to help you possibly get around this problem.
The restrictions by your broker are only half your systems' success, you also need to find out about another more important restriction... yourself. This leads me to the final point...
5. What restrictions do you have?
This is a vitally important question. Most people test their systems and fall in love with the results but find when they trade their system they have lost their account and that most of the best signals occurred while they were sound asleep!
As the forex market is a 24 hour market, you need to put into place restrictions in your system that will be realisticly conducted by you during the course of a normal trading day. There is no use operating a trailing stop method that changes your stop points during times when you are asleep and cannot possibly do so.
I hope this article has made you aware of some of the important things that need to be known prior to testing your system.Article written by Ryan Sheehy from Currency Secrets.com. Where you will find reviews on forex data vendors, signal providers, brokers, and popular forex resources, along with more quality articles... all for f*ree!
Two Great Forex Indicators: Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements
Forex trading is a fascinating way of earning a living online, and if you are seriously considering entering this fascinating world of forex trading you must consider, by all means, the learning and understanding of a number of indicators that will give you invaluable help on predicting with a high probability the directions the forex market may take as you carefully analyze the price charts for any currency you are trading at the moment. Two of these important indicators are: "Bollinger Bands" and "Fibonacci Retracements".
The basic interpretation of "Bollinger Bands" is that prices tend to stay within the space formed by the tracings of the upper and lower bands. The distinctive characteristic of "Bollinger Bands" is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of extreme currency price changes (i.e., high volatility), the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, the bands narrow to contain currency prices. The bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. They indicate a "sell" when prices are above the moving average (or close to the upper band) and a "buy" when prices are below it (or close to the lower band). The bands are used by some forex traders in conjunction with other analyses, including RSI, MACD, CCI, and Rate of Change.
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a sequence of numbers discovered by the noted mathematician Leonardo da Pisa during the twelfth century. These numbers describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can be used to find pullbacks in the currency market. More information here; http://www.1-forex.com
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a quite effective way to see the future (at least in the forex markets), i.e., it involves anticipating changes in trends as prices near the lines created by the Fibonacci studies. After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and resistance levels often occur at or near the "Fibonacci Retracement levels" (See my articles on "Fibonacci trading" for more detail about this).
In the currency markets, the commonly used sequence of ratios is 23.6 %, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. Fibonacci retracement levels can easily be displayed by connecting a trend line from a perceived high point to a perceived low point. By taking the difference between the high and low, the user can apply the % ratios to achieve the desired pullbacks.Adrian PabloForex Trader and Freelance Writerhttp://www.1-forex.com
The basic interpretation of "Bollinger Bands" is that prices tend to stay within the space formed by the tracings of the upper and lower bands. The distinctive characteristic of "Bollinger Bands" is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of extreme currency price changes (i.e., high volatility), the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, the bands narrow to contain currency prices. The bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. They indicate a "sell" when prices are above the moving average (or close to the upper band) and a "buy" when prices are below it (or close to the lower band). The bands are used by some forex traders in conjunction with other analyses, including RSI, MACD, CCI, and Rate of Change.
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a sequence of numbers discovered by the noted mathematician Leonardo da Pisa during the twelfth century. These numbers describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can be used to find pullbacks in the currency market. More information here; http://www.1-forex.com
"Fibonacci retracement levels" are a quite effective way to see the future (at least in the forex markets), i.e., it involves anticipating changes in trends as prices near the lines created by the Fibonacci studies. After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and resistance levels often occur at or near the "Fibonacci Retracement levels" (See my articles on "Fibonacci trading" for more detail about this).
In the currency markets, the commonly used sequence of ratios is 23.6 %, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. Fibonacci retracement levels can easily be displayed by connecting a trend line from a perceived high point to a perceived low point. By taking the difference between the high and low, the user can apply the % ratios to achieve the desired pullbacks.Adrian PabloForex Trader and Freelance Writerhttp://www.1-forex.com
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